Welcome to Meteomatics First Weather Update for the Energy Market.

Following this seasons volatility in the energy market, Meteomatics has decided to launch a fortnightly weather bulletin to keep our customers aware of the unfolding weather situation across Europe. Helping our customers stay informed of the latest weather developments that could influence trading over the month ahead.

Meteomatics Energy Market Weather Update analyzes temperature and wind forecasts, and provides a comparison against the 15-year climatology for each of the following regions:

The United Kingdom / Italy / Netherlands / Germany & Northern France.

Summary – 26/11 – 23/12

Periods of cold weather in December dropping below the 15-year mean, front week of December, and again in the 3rd  and 4th week of December. Wind speeds vary across the period, with all regions expecting speeds below the climatological mean at differing extents during the 2nd week of December (except UK).

1. Temperature

From today until the end of November: it will be colder than average in Germany (deviation from climatology up to -3.5 °C), UK (up to -4 °C), northern France (up to -5 °C ) and the Netherlands (up to -4.5 °C).

The situation on 4th December 00Z: cold air masses spread across Europe. Northwestern/western flow.

Chart 1. Situation on 04/12/21 00Z: cold air masses spread across Europe. Northwestern/western flow.

Chart 1. Pressure Map 04/12/21 00Z

Taking a closer look at each of the key regions in more detail to reveal the downward temperature trends:

  • United Kingdom (24/11/21 - 23/12/21)
Chart 2. 2 m temperature & 15 year mean

Chart 2. 2-meter temperature forecast & 15-year mean

After a recovery in temperatures until the end of the month, they will drop significantly in the 'front week' before recovering to above-expected temperatures for the time of year, until mid-December (around 17th December).

  • Italy (24/11/21 - 23/12/21)
Chart 3. Italy 2-meter temperature forecast & 15 year mean

Chart 3. Italy 2-meter temperature forecast & 15-year mean

Temperatures in Italy will mostly remain below the climatological mean for the forecast period

  • Northern France

Whilst northern France will experience a similar drop in temperature as the UK and the signal is slightly above normal for the remainder of December, until 19th December when temperatures are expected to drop below the climatological mean (-3.0 °C)

Chart 4. Northern France 2-meter temperature forecast & 15-year mean

Chart 4. Northern France 2-meter temperature forecast & 15-year mean

  • Germany
Chart 4. Northern France IChart 5. Germany 2-meter temperature forecast & 15-year mean

Chart 5. Germany 2-meter temperature forecast & 15-year mean

Germany is expected to experience cold temperatures in late November and in the 'front week' of December, before temperatures recover and there is a signal for a significant drop in late December.

2. Wind speed

A ridge could be developing and may prevent low-pressure systems from moving into Europe, possibly bringing calmer conditions on 11/12/21

Chart 6. Pressure map 11/12/21 00Z

Chart 6. Pressure map 11/12/21 00Z - showing a ridge building

The update now explores the wind situation over the coming month to explore the potential impact on renewable power generation across European markets.

  • Germany

In Germany, high wind speeds (up to +6m/s above climatology) are forecasted for the beginning of December and also in late December, likely to improve renewable power production.

Chart 7. Germany 90 meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

Chart 7. Germany 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

  • Italy

Italy is expected to also experience wind speeds above average at the beginning of December, but is forecasted to experience calmer conditions during mid-December, which coincides with a sharp fall in temperatures around 17th December, potentially increasing demand and placing pressure on the energy grid.

Chart 8. Italy 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

Chart 8. Italy 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

  • Netherlands

Wind speeds are mostly below the climatological mean in early December, with changeable wind speeds until week three, when wind speeds increase and deviations of up to +10 m/s above-average expected around week 4 in December.

Chart 9. Netherlands 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

Chart 9. Netherlands 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

  • Northern France

Northern France is expected to also experience wind speeds above average at the beginning of December (up to +7.5 m/s) and towards the end (up to +5 m/s) of December. The lack of wind, cold temperatures and lack of sunlight could pose challenges for the energy industry on 19th and 20th December.

Chart 10. Northern France 90 meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

Chart 10. Northern France 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

  • United Kingdom 

The UK is expected to experience wind speeds above average at the beginning of December (up to +5 m/s) and increased speeds (up to +9.5 m/s) in week four until Christmas.

Chart 11. UK 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mea

Chart 11. UK 90-meter wind speed forecast & 15-year mean

The data (in the charts shown) can be obtained from Meteomatics API, please refer to our latest tech blog article for further details on how to create your own report for any lat / long, area of interest (polygon request).

We hope you found Meteomatics first energy market weather update informative. Please feel free to submit any feedback to [email protected], so that we can continue improving this service and offer valuable weather insights for European weather markets.

If you are not yet a customer but would like to gain further information on Meteomatics API, and the forecast data it makes available. Please contact our expert energy meteorologist Matthias Piot ([email protected]), who will be happy to provide any assistance you may need.