Extreme Forecast Indices (EFI) and Shift of Tails (SOT) now available

Weather forecasts differ. Model ensembles capture the variability of the weather when they differ, but even more information is available in the distribution of models when it comes to unusual and extreme events. This additional value is now offered in the meteomatics API in the form of two indices:

  • EFI - extreme forecast indices, say how likely an unusual condition is to occur

  • SOT - shift of tails of the cumulative model ensemble distribution, says how extreme these unusual condition would be, should they occur.

EFI and SOT indices are available for a whole set of weather parameters and several time periods (see documentation of extreme weather):

  • wind speed
  • temperature
  • precipitation
  • snow fall
  • significant wave height
  • water vapor flux
  • CAPE

sat_example

The EFI for accumulated precipitation over 3 days from August 2 until August 3, 2020. During this period heavy rainfall events occurred in central Europe.


sat_example

The EFI for wind speed at 10 m over 3 days from August 2 until August 3, 2020. During this period tropical storm Isaias moved along the US East Coast.


sat_example

The EFI for significant wave height highlights regions that are likely to deviate from a smooth median climate.