Weather Resiliency: Preparing Utilities for the Next "Big One"

Welcome and agenda

Candice Thompson (Meteomatics):
Okay, so we have a lot to cover today, so I’m going to kick it off already.

Hello everyone and welcome to the very last energy webinar of the year. Today we’re focusing on weather resiliency — preparing utilities for the next big one.

I’m Candice Thompson, Customer Success Manager at Meteomatics. Joining me today are Markus, Keanu, and Rob from Meteomatics. We’re also joined by customers and partners: Rob Power from ESB Networks, Simon Stein from TransnetBW, and Lucy Kennedy from Spottett, a Meteomatics partner providing remote asset monitoring for critical infrastructure.

Today’s agenda:

• A short winter weather resiliency quiz

• An overview of changing weather and climate risks

• Case studies including Storm Éowyn, N-1 contingency planning, and winter balancing challenges

• A customer panel discussion

• A live, interactive weather outlook

Let’s move into the main session. I’ll hand over to Rob Hutchinson from Meteomatics, who will set the scene by discussing how weather-related threats to utilities are changing.

Changing weather risks and system stress

Rob Hutchinson (Meteomatics):
Thank you, Candice.

I’ll start by setting some context around the challenges utilities and the energy sector are increasingly facing.

We’re seeing climate-related impacts on multiple fronts. Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and severity, placing new strain on assets and fundamentally changing supply and demand patterns — especially heating and cooling demand.

A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which means rainfall is becoming heavier. The frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing, supported by observations and climate models. We’ve seen devastating flooding events, including in Valencia, and storms like Storm Boris, which caused widespread flooding across Europe.

Windstorms present a mixed picture. Overall frequency may be decreasing slightly, but the most severe windstorms are becoming more intense, driven by changes in temperature gradients and jet stream positioning. North-Western Europe is particularly exposed.

We’re also seeing increasing land instability, including landslides and avalanches in complex terrain, as well as changes in line icing risk. While some regions see less icing, alpine areas and parts of the Nordics face more frequent marginal-temperature icing events.

On the system side, utilities face growing stress from:

• higher renewable penetration,

• electrification (heat pumps, EVs, data centres),

• changing supply–demand dynamics.

This increases market volatility and balancing pressure. Across the industry, there’s growing recognition that we need what we call “weather resiliency 2.0.”

A good example is the recent Innovation Allowance Alliance launched by seven major European TSOs — their first challenge focuses entirely on weather and climate resiliency.

Case study: Storm Éowyn

Rob Hutchinson (Meteomatics):
Let’s look at Storm Éowyn, which hit on 24 January. It was one of the most severe windstorms Europe can face and triggered a Europe-wide mutual aid response, with crews deployed to Ireland from across the continent.

Storm Éowyn left around a third of customers across Ireland without power, and in some western and northern regions, nearly 100% experienced outages for extended periods.

Following the event, ESB commissioned Meteomatics to analyse storm frequency. The data shows that while overall storm frequency may decline, top-end storm severity is increasing.

Traditionally, many TSOs and DSOs rely on daily PDF weather reports. These are useful, but we believe we can go further using web technology and high-resolution modelling.

Here we show an animated loop of Storm Éowyn using MetX, our interactive platform. Weather data is overlaid on ESB’s overhead line network and operational areas, allowing detailed, asset-specific analysis. This is powered by the Meteomatics API and the EURO1k high-resolution model, enabling much more precise identification of impact locations.

We can also see highly localized wind differences using a 90-metre high-resolution wind model, highlighting terrain-driven effects.

I’ll now hand over to Markus to discuss exceptional contingency warnings.

Exceptional contingency warnings and thresholds

Markus (Meteomatics):
Exceptional contingency warnings become critical in winter, especially when rare, severe events affect parallel network elements and threaten N-1 security.

In Germany, four main categories are implemented:

• extreme wind gusts,

• wet snow or freezing rain,

• combinations of precipitation and wind,

• rare in-cloud icing events without precipitation.

Using the MetX Threshold Manager, we can combine parameters — for example, wind gusts above 10 m/s with wet snow — and trigger a traffic-light system. This allows operators to see in real time which assets or circuits are affected.

These situations can be monitored 24/7 in control rooms, enabling proactive decisions, including pre-emptive shutdowns if required.

I’ll now pass to Keanu.

Winter balancing and Dunkelflaute

Keanu (Meteomatics):
I’ll cover Dunkelflaute — a prolonged period of low wind and solar generation, typically in winter.

In December 2024, Germany experienced exactly this. Thick cloud cover and short daylight hours reduced solar output to below 10% of installed capacity. Wind generation also collapsed due to persistent high pressure, with turbines operating below cut-in speeds for days.

The result wasn’t a dramatic event like a storm, but a structural system challenge: reserves depleted early, redispatch volumes surged, and system resilience was tested.

As renewable penetration increases, these events matter more. It’s no longer just about generation — it’s about readiness.

Transition to customer panel

Candice Thompson (Meteomatics):
Thank you, Keanu. We’ve seen weather data not just as numbers in an API, but as operational insight brought to life through visualization.

Now we’ll hear from our customers. I’ll start with Rob Power from ESB Networks, who is currently managing impacts from Storm Bram.

Utility operations: ESB Networks

Rob Power (ESB Networks):
Thank you.

We use several Meteomatics services. We rely on daily weather reports that highlight risks such as line icing, lightning, or wind — critical for daily operational readiness.

We also use the MetX platform to visualize how storms may evolve over time, and we’re integrating API data into our OT and NMS systems to support forecasting.

Storm Bram is impacting us now, though less severely than Storm Éowyn. We currently have around 45,000 customers without power, compared with nearly 800,000 during Éowyn.

Forecasting allows us to:

• cancel planned work,

• pre-position crews and vehicles,

• plan customer communications and restoration times, especially for vulnerable customers.

The value lies in understanding what may happen before it happens.

Flexibility and forecasting at ESB

Rob Power (ESB Networks):
Electrification of heat and transport is pushing our grid close to capacity. Network investment takes time, so we increasingly rely on flexibility, including domestic demand response and battery storage.

We’ve moved from a reactive model to an ADMS-driven forecasting approach. Using weather data from the API, we can anticipate network loads, line ratings, wind generation, and constraints. This supports coordination with the TSO and helps avoid emergency load shedding.

Forecasting is no longer just about storms — it’s part of day-to-day operations.

TransnetBW perspective

Simon Stein (TransnetBW):
In Germany, PV generation variability is a major challenge. Regional weather events can cause operational issues if not forecast accurately.

Worst-case scenarios often involve regional disturbances or events triggering exceptional contingency warnings, such as lightning or combined hazards.

Having clear trigger criteria and usable tools is essential for real-time operators.

Investment justification and operator usability

Rob Power (ESB Networks):
After major events, utilities must justify resilience investments to regulators and customers. Access to high-quality weather data helps us identify where to invest at an asset level and demonstrate value.

Asset monitoring and climate risk

Lucy Kennedy (Spottitt):
We work with network operators on asset monitoring using satellite data combined with Meteomatics historical, current, and forecast weather data.

Vegetation management cycles are changing due to longer and more variable growing seasons. Landslide risk is also increasing, and combining movement data with rainfall and topography improves risk assessment.

Weather and climate data matter far beyond tomorrow’s forecast.

Panel question: the future of weather technology

Candice Thompson (Meteomatics):
How do you see the role of weather technology evolving over the next decades?

Lucy Kennedy (Spottitt):
Demand will grow. Operators must be able to consume and integrate weather data into decisions — it will be unacceptable not to.

Simon Stein (TransnetBW):
High-quality data already helps us identify issues earlier and respond better.

Rob Power (ESB Networks):
Weather forecasting capabilities are central to operational transformation and regulatory planning. Making data accessible across the business is key.

Rob Hutchinson (Meteomatics):
This reinforces our view that democratizing access to weather data is vital. Visualization is important, but so is enabling downstream applications via the API.

Live demo and outlook

Rob Hutchinson (Meteomatics):
We’re currently seeing a very active jet stream driven by strong temperature gradients, resulting in wind and rain across Europe.

Using MetX, we can visualize ESB’s live network conditions, integrate Met Office warnings (currently in beta), and assess renewable impacts — including UK wind generation near record levels.

Wind farm assets can be monitored against cut-out thresholds (typically 25 m/s), which is important for balancing.

Looking ahead, the two-week outlook suggests a mild period, making a white Christmas unlikely.

MetX allows flexible combinations of assets, thresholds, and parameters — all powered by EURO1k and accessible via the API.

Q&A: Why EURO1k?

Candice Thompson (Meteomatics):
All the examples today used EURO1k data. Why is that preferred, and is it a significant advantage for this industry?

Rob Hutchinson (Meteomatics):
Euro 1K is our in-house high-resolution model. We also ingest data from 25–30 other models, but we often prioritise Euro 1K because validation studies show higher accuracy.

It’s designed for the short term — up to 72 hours — which is where energy markets and utility operations face the biggest challenges. It delivers strong value for balancing, intraday and day-ahead forecasting, and severe weather response.

Longer-term risk data is also available alongside this, all in one platform.

Thank you all for joining us. If you have further questions or want to explore a specific use case, please get in touch. We wish you a great festive season and look forward to the next webinar.