CSU Warns of Higher Hurricane Risk for U.S. East Coast in 2025 Outlook

Colorado State University (CSU), a global leader in seasonal hurricane prediction since 1984, has released its 2025 hurricane season outlook, and it's concerning: "We're forecasting an above normal Atlantic hurricane season," said Dr. Phil Klotzbach, lead researcher at CSU. The long-term average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, making this year notably more active.

The Climate Drivers Behind the Forecast

CSU’s forecast considers two major climate signals: ocean temperatures and the status of the ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation).

"El Niño is generally bad for hurricanes because it increases winds high up in the atmosphere that tend to tear and shear apart hurricanes," explained Dr. Klotzbach. This year, however, we’re in ENSO-neutral conditions–meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is in play. That typically opens the door for more hurricane activity.

"The tropical Atlantic is still a little warmer than normal," he added. Warm water is fuel for tropical cyclones, and those elevated sea surface temperatures increase the likelihood of stronger storms.

Another potential factor is Saharan dust, which can suppress storm development. "High dust levels last season contributed to a quiet August despite otherwise favorable conditions," said Klotzbach. It’s a wildcard that could again influence the timing and intensity of storm formation.

Regional Risks: Who Should Pay Attention

The implications of an active hurricane season vary by region and industry.

Chris Hyde, Senior Sales Manager at Meteomatics, outlined potential impacts:

• Energy sector (Gulf): "If there is a fair amount of shear in the Caribbean… the natural gas producing area in the central and western Gulf may have a slightly lower probability of landfall," said Hyde. Still, he warned, "it only takes one."

• Utilities (East Coast): "The grids could be impacted with more of a higher probability on the East Coast," he explained. With warmer waters and more favorable conditions in the Atlantic, East Coast landfalls are more likely than in recent years.

• Agriculture and infrastructure: Inland flooding and wind damage are perennial threats. “Agriculture and other sectors could certainly be impacted,” said Hyde, particularly with late-season storms

This year, decision-makers can count on a significant technological upgrade: Meteomatics' US1k weather model is operational, delivering unmatched detail ahead of hurricane season. Designed specifically for the United States, US1k combines powerful computing with Meteomatics' proprietary downscaling methods to offer:

• Wind, precipitation, and storm track forecasts at hyper-local resolution

• 90-meter downscaling, enabling street-level accuracy in urban and coastal zones

• High-frequency updates, delivering up-to-the-minute precision as storms evolve

While US1k is newly operational for the 2025 season, expectations are high given the strong performance of Meteomatics' EURO1kmodel in past events. Meteomatics ran retrospective simulations to benchmark US1k’s performance using the Hurricane Helene scenario. The model demonstrated closer alignment to observed station data than high-resolution models like HRRR and AIFS, particularly in forecasting wind speeds.

These early results give confidence that US1k can provide more timely and localized insights, which are crucial for emergency managers, utilities, and infrastructure operators. The model continuously improves, with every forecast cycle feeding back into more innovative, refined outputs. This isn’t just a launch; it’s a leap forward in forecasting power, tailored to meet the specific needs of U.S. decision-makers.

These retrospective results suggest that US1k has the potential to offer earlier and more precise projections of peak wind events–something that could empower emergency planners, utilities, and infrastructure managers as the model becomes more widely adopted in operations. While US1k is still new, it's built on a foundation of rigorous modeling and continues to improve with each cycle. It's a model designed for real-world impact, backed by verification and advancing quickly.

Knowing the risks is one thing – planning effectively is another. Meteomatics provides real-time, high-resolution weather intelligence that transforms forecasts into actionable insights:

• Pinpoint storm surge, wind fields, and flood risk for specific assets
• Real-time tracking and updates as conditions evolve
• Weather API integration for operational planning and automation

With hurricanes capable of disrupting power, energy, transport, and supply chains, decision-makers need clarity fast. US1k fills this gap—whether refining surge predictions for a refinery near the Gulf or mapping wind risks around vulnerable grid infrastructure, the model gives you a head start.

If there’s one truth that every storm season reminds us of, it’s this: it only takes one. One landfalling hurricane. One unexpected shift in track. One night of wind and water to change everything.

Most will spin safely out to sea even in seasons packed with named storms. But the one that finds its way to shore – that’s the one you plan for. That’s why vigilance matters.

Preparation doesn’t start with landfall warnings – it begins now. With the correct data, tools, and partners, you can move faster, respond smarter, and protect what matters most.

Follow Meteomatics for timely insights, storm tracking, and weather intelligence you can trust. We’re here to help you stay ready — before, during, and after the storm.

Reach out to our experts.