15-Minute Weather Forecasts for Europe’s New Day-Ahead Trading Rules

Starting October 1, 2025, Europe’s day-ahead electricity market moves from hourly to 15-minute trading intervals, demanding much higher forecasting precision, especially for renewables. Meteomatics' EURO1k model provides weather forecasts at 15-minute temporal and 1-km spatial resolution, aligning directly with the new market structure. Its fine granularity helps market participants better anticipate short-term changes in generation and demand, improving scheduling decisions and reducing imbalance risks.

The Market Shift: From Hours to Minutes

Under the current framework, electricity in Europe’s day-ahead market is primarily traded in hourly blocks. That changes on October 1, 2025, when 15-minute Market Time Units (MTUs) become standard across all Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) bidding zones and for all bidding zone borders at the same time (excluding Ireland that will remain in 30-minute).

This transition is part of a wider effort to build a more integrated and renewable-ready grid. By introducing four price points per hour, the new 15-minute MTU structure enables the market to better reflect short-term fluctuations in supply and demand. But with this finer resolution comes increased complexity: weather-driven events, such as wind ramps, fast-moving cloud cover, or localised storms, can now trigger price swings every 15 minutes. These fluctuations, previously smoothed out over hourly averages, become fully visible and tradable, increasing the risk of imbalance costs.

In this environment, success depends on the ability to anticipate and respond to rapid changes. That means using forecast data that’s both accurate and aligned with operational realities. This is where Meteomatics’ EURO1k model fits in. With 1 km spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution across Europe, it’s built to provide the high-frequency, location-specific forecasts needed to support quarter-hourly trading.

EURO1k: Designed for Sub-Hourly Markets

Meteomatics' EURO1k model provides weather forecasts at 1 km spatial resolution and 15-minute temporal intervals. It’s the only operational weather model currently running at that scale over all of Europe.

What does that mean in practice?

• Short-term accuracy and temporal alignment: With outputs every 15 minutes, EURO1k forecasts match the new MTU resolution natively with no need for interpolation. The model captures micro-weather phenomena that coarser models miss, like localized wind shifts or cloud shadows moving across solar farms.
• Spatial relevance: Energy output in one region can differ significantly from a neighboring zone. With a native spatial resolution of 1 km and further downscaling to 90 m, EURO1k is capable of producing accurate forecasts at farm site level or even at turbine level.

For trading desks, this means more confidence in volume forecasts. You’re working with data that sees the market through the same lens.

More than a policy milestone, the 15-minute market is a test of who can adapt, quickly and precisely, to a more volatile, weather-driven grid. For those who want to stay ahead of that curve, EURO1k gives energy players the situational awareness they need to navigate the transition, avoid imbalance costs, and extract value from short-term market movements.