Multi-Million-Euro Savings in Imbalance Costs With More Accurate Weather Forecasts

Accurate wind forecasts lead to better power forecasts and market bids, yet most models miss rapid offshore changes. With 1 km² spatial and 15-minute temporal resolution, Meteomatics’ EURO1k captures fine-scale dynamics (such as wind shifts, intra-farm variability and wake effects), enabling turbine-level forecasts that reduce financial risk.

Weather Forecast Accuracy Defines Offshore Wind Profitability

This study shows EURO1k outperforming ECMWF IFS and DWD ICON-D2 in offshore wind forecasting. Using lidar and turbine-level data from a North Sea wind farm, we evaluate model accuracy in wind speed and power forecasts, then translate improvements into reduced imbalance costs, demonstrating the financial value of enhanced forecast skill.

EURO1k Is the Most Dependable Model Across All Key Metrics

To validate forecast accuracy, we compare wind speed predictions from EURO1k, ECMWF IFS, and DWD ICON D2 against lidar data collected from a representative offshore location. Lidar systems measure high-resolution vertical profiles of wind speeds, making them ideal references for model comparison.

Over the course of a full month (April 30 – May 30, 2025), EURO1k consistently delivered the most accurate offshore wind speed forecasts compared to ECMWF IFS and DWD ICON-D2. While the other models consistently overestimated wind speeds, EURO1k stayed remarkably close to reality, with near-zero bias and the lowest forecast errors day after day. Even when the weather turned more volatile, it held its ground, delivering stable, accurate predictions. With the strongest correlation to actual observations, EURO1k accurately captured the timing and structure of wind changes, making it the most dependable model across all key metrics. For operators relying on precision at turbine scale, that level of consistency offers a clear advantage.

For a hypothetical 400 MW offshore wind farm in the German Bight, reducing the mean absolute wind-speed error in day-ahead forecasts from 1.52 m/s with ECMWF-IFS to 1.32 m/s with Meteomatics EURO1k corresponds to about a 0.2 m/s improvement, a 13% error reduction. Translated into power output terms, this equates to 22.7 MW less imbalance on average and around 200 GWh of avoided imbalance energy annually. At an assumed imbalance settlement price of 50 EUR/MWh, the financial benefit amounts to 10 million euros per year.

When comparing ICON-D2 (1.48 m/s) to EURO1k (1.32 m/s), the improvement is about 0.16 m/s. ICON-D2, with a resolution closer to EURO1k than ECMWF, already performs relatively well, yet EURO1k still delivers a clear edge. This translates to a 10% reduction in power forecast error, or roughly 12.6 MW less imbalance on average. Over a year, that equals about 110 GWh of avoided imbalance energy, corresponding to approximately 5.5 million euros in avoided costs.

Across Multiple Case Studies, EURO1k Consistently Outperforms ECMWF IFS and DWD ICON-D2

We tested EURO1k, ECMWF IFS, and DWD ICON-D2 on a North Sea offshore wind farm by comparing their forecasts with real measurements of wind speed at hub height and turbine-level power output. The goal was to see how well each model predicts wind conditions and translates them into accurate power forecasts, crucial for operations, market bidding, and managing imbalance costs.

Across multiple case studies, EURO1k consistently outperforms ECMWF IFS and DWD ICON-D2 in capturing the magnitude, timing, and spatial variability of wind conditions, as well as in delivering realistic and precise power forecasts. It provides a better match with observed turbine behavior and responds more accurately to rapid changes in weather, offering superior value in both operational and commercial contexts. 

Below are two representative examples, from January and March 2025, that highlight EURO1k’s advantage under different meteorological conditions.