Short-Term Power Markets: Staying Ahead With Weather-Driven Trading Strategies

Presented by: Meteomatics, Enerjisa Üretim and Engie

Date: September 29, 2025

Duration: 54 minutes

Participants:

• Meteomatics experts: Dr. Matthias Piot (Senior Meteorologist and Global Account Manager), Serdal Tunc (Weather Innovation Manager and Senior Meteorologist)
• Enerjisa Üretim: Bulut Akkol (Climate and Weather Analysis Mentor)
• Engie: Benjamin Totel (Energy Trading Meteorologist and Hydrologist)
• Moderation: Candice Thompson (Customer Success Manager)

The webinar focused on how short-term energy trading strategies are evolving alongside structural market changes, particularly the shift to 15-minute market time units across Europe, and how advanced weather data solutions like Meteomatics’ EURO1k model are enabling traders to gain a decisive edge. A key case study illustrated how, on March 3, 2025, EURO1k successfully forecasted a sharp drop in solar output in the Netherlands caused by low cloud cover, icing, and fog, conditions missed by global models like ECMWF and GFS. This early insight allowed traders using EURO1k to anticipate a major market dislocation: an 800 MW shortage that drove prices near €1,900/MWh, followed by a 600 MW surplus that led to negative pricing near –€1,300/MWh. This example underscored the value of native 15-minute physics, high spatial resolution (1 km), and hourly model updates with real-time data assimilation, features that differentiate Euro1k from traditional models that rely on interpolated hourly data.

The discussion also highlighted the significance of the October 1st change to Euphemia, which brings 15-minute resolution to the day-ahead market across most of Europe, aligning it with intraday and balancing timelines. This harmonization improves market efficiency and lowers imbalance costs, but only for participants equipped with the right forecasting tools and operational speed. Panelists emphasized that rapid refresh rates, radar and satellite data assimilation, and high granularity are essential for accurate forecasting of localized, high-impact weather events like fog, icing, Saharan dust, and snow-covered PV. These conditions often trigger multi-gigawatt mismatches between expected and actual generation, leading to extreme balancing costs.

Customer insights from ENGIE and Enerjisa reinforced the operational value of Meteomatics’ data. ENGIE shared how weather now drives short-term volatility across all European markets, even in gas trading, and emphasized the need for ensemble forecasting and scenario generation. Their team integrates data from Meteomatics via a highly reliable and easy-to-use API, which has been a cornerstone of their modeling architecture for nearly a decade. Enerjisa detailed how they use Meteomatics for forecasting, hydro optimization, and predictive maintenance across a diverse portfolio, including wind, solar, hydro, and hybrid assets in Turkey. They noted differences between Turkish and European markets (such as price caps, lower intraday liquidity, and a more recent emergence of duck curve effects) while also acknowledging that Turkey is following Europe’s regulatory path.

Key Takeaways

• EURO1k accurately anticipated a significant market dislocation (NL, 3 Mar 2025): Thick low clouds + icing + fog cut solar far more than global models expected. EURO1k forecast the sharp drop; ECMWF/GFS did not. Traders using EURO1k could have avoided the ~800 MW shortage spike (~€1,900/MWh) and the later ~600 MW surplus swing (~–€1,300/MWh). → Benefit: Reduced exposure to imbalance penalties and trading volatility.
• Native 15-minute physics-based outputs surpass interpolated hourly resolutions: With day-ahead Europe moving to 15-minute MTUs (from Oct 1), “true” 15-min physics matters. EURO1k is natively 15-min and updated hourly; many competitors just resample hourly outputs. → Benefit: truer intra-hour ramps for bids, positions, and dispatch.
• Hourly rapid refresh + data assimilation = faster course-correction: EURO1k ingests radar, satellite, and observations each hour, so new runs reflect what’s actually happening (fog, hail, convection, cloud edges). → Benefit: shorter error tails, quicker intraday adjustments, lower aFRR exposure.
• Local effects decide P&L; high-res (1 km) is the edge: Thunderstorms, orographic winds, icing, Saharan dust, snow on PV—these are local and timing-critical. EURO1k 1 km detail captured them when globals smoothed them out. → Benefit: fewer multi-MW surprises across wind/PV fleets.
• Case evidence: routine weather still moves gigawatts: Germany, 3 Jun (non-extreme day): ~8 GW PV shortfall vs expectations; intraday prices touched ~€10,000/MWh; aFRR neared ~€15,000/MWh. → Benefit with EURO1k: better renewables nowcasts reduce exposure to tail-prices.
• Customers confirm: the API is the workhorse: ENGIE (9-year user) called the Meteomatics Weather API modern and “extremely easy to use,” ideal for automated data feeds into in-house models. → Benefit: lower integration friction, faster model iteration, reliable pipelines.
• End-to-end ops use the same truth source: Enerjisa uses Meteomatics for visualization (operational awareness), wind/solar forecasting, and hydro inflow/ensemble modeling—plus planning & maintenance. → Benefit: one vendor, many use-cases; fewer silos, consistent assumptions.
• Probability > single model heroics: ENGIE emphasized scenario sets/ensembles and performance by regime/season. Meteomatics’ breadth (EURO1k + global models + obs) supports that workflow. → Benefit: better risk distributions for bidding and hedging.
• AI hype check for short-term trading: Speaker’s view: don’t lean on generic AI for 15-minute horizons today; it tends to miss local, rapidly evolving events. Physics-based high-res + frequent updates wins now. → Benefit: fewer model-driven traps during ramps/fronts.
• Operational readiness matters as much as the data: Market windows are shrinking; decision latency is the bottleneck. Teams that upgrade to native 15-min, automate ingestion, and wire EURO1k into intraday/algorithmic desks will capture the efficiency gains of Europe’s harmonized 15-min chain (DA → intraday → balancing). → Benefit: tighter alignment, reduced balancing costs, more resilient P&L.

Q&As

Q: What role does weather data play in your intraday trading decisions?
A: It is central. To produce bidding plans and strategies for our renewable assets, we need high-quality, high-resolution weather forecasts (e.g., solar radiation) or we are effectively blind.

Q: How do you manage uncertainty across a growing renewable portfolio (including rooftop/behind-the-meter PV)?
A: Use many forecasts to build scenarios (a probabilistic view). Model performance varies by season and regime, so we assess that and run internal models that consume multiple scenarios. Robust data management is required.

Q (Matthias → Enerjisa/Enerjisa): What are the main differences between the Turkish and European power markets?
A (Enerjisa): Turkey’s day-ahead uses a merit-order system, but short-term liquidity is lower. There are price floors/ceilings (no negative prices), so imbalance fluctuations are narrower than Europe’s. “Duck curve” effects are emerging as renewables grow. Regulation follows Europe with a lag.

Q: Any advice for Turkish players operating cross-border or moving toward European practices?
A: It depends on each company’s portfolio and pain points. The toughest issues now are managing intraday exposure to unusual weather patterns and coping with downstream demand forecasts complicated by distributed/plug-in solar that is often unobserved.

Q: How do you separate day-ahead and intraday operations? Integrated or distinct?
A (Enerjisa): Similar structure to Europe: day-ahead first, then intraday tools to correct imbalances. Due to price limits, we sometimes focus less on price spikes than European desks.
A (ENGIE): We are shifting to a more algorithmic approach from day-ahead through intraday, trading as dynamically as possible on the most accurate data.

Q: Does Meteomatics incorporate real-time/nowcast data (e.g., radar) or just model forecasts?
A: Meteomatics EURO1k assimilates radar, satellite, and observations each hourly cycle; the next run reflects current conditions (fog, hail, convection, clouds), improving near-term accuracy.

Q: Can EURO1k improve severe convective elements like hail and thunderstorms?
A: Yes. Because radar/satellite/obs are assimilated into each hourly update, EURO1k improves depiction of thunderstorms and hail-related dynamics versus forecast-only approaches.

Q: Does Meteomatics have verification statistics/metrics for EURO1k and comparisons versus other models?
A: Yes—extensive verification against observations and peer models exists. The team can provide performance statistics on request.

Q: What exactly happened in the Dutch balancing market on 3 March 2025, and what did EURO1k do differently?
A: EURO1k forecasted much lower morning solar radiation due to thick low clouds/icing/fog (~100 W/m² vs >200 W/m² from globals). The market saw ~800 MW shortage and prices near €1,900/MWh, later flipping to ~600 MW surplus with large negative prices (~–€1,300/MWh). EURO1k anticipated the sharp PV drop that globals missed, offering earlier warning for traders.

Q: Why does Europe’s switch to 15-minute MTUs (incl. Euphemia day-ahead from 1 Oct) matter for trading?
A: It increases efficiency and stability, aligns day-ahead/intraday/balancing, and supports cross-border consistency. With higher renewable penetration, native 15-min data helps reduce imbalance costs and price spikes—provided firms upgrade forecasting and processes.