Meteomatics’ Energy Market Weather Update analyzes temperature and wind forecasts, and provides a comparison against the 15-year climatology for each of the following regions: The United Kingdom / Italy / Netherlands / Germany & Northern France. Synoptic features of interest are shown for week 1.

 

Figure 1: Sea-level pressure (isobars) and wind speed (color scale) showing dissipating Storm Landon just before passing north of Scotland on 10/02/2022

 

 

Week 1

Weather for the week 1 is set to be dominated by a high pressure situated over Western Europe, as well as the remnants of Storm Landon, located near Iceland at the time of writing. Two days ahead (10/02/2022), the associated dissipating low-pressure system is expected to pass over the North Sea north of the UK, bringing strong winds first to the west coast of Scotland and then to the coast of Holland.

 

Figure 2: The remnants of Storm Landon 18 hours after Figure 1, forecast to bring moderate wind to the Coast of Holland. A second large low pressure system approaches from the west.

 

The two large low pressure systems seen in figures 1 & 2 are due to bring two short peaks in mean wind-speed over the UK on the 10/02 and 12/02/2022 respectively, as can be seen in figure 3. 

 

Wind speeds in the rest of north-western Europe do not appear to deviate strongly from the seasonal average during this first week (figures 4-7), although concentrated local effects not captured in the large area averages cannot be ruled out.

Week 2

In general, the blocking high is due to be replaced by a westerly flow across most of north-western Europe by the start of week 2. Italy, which is well insulated by the Alps, will continue to experience seasonally normal wind (figure 7) and mildly warm temperatures (figure 12), whilst the UK, northern France, the Netherlands and Germany may experience a mid-week peak in mean wind speed (figures 3-6). 

No overall trend in temperature is observable for the UK in week 2 (figure 8), but northern France, the Netherlands and Germany are likely to experience a mild positive temperature anomaly beginning mid-week (figures 9-11). 

Weeks 3-4

As more high-pressure systems are expected to move over western Europe during weeks 3 and 4, this temperature anomaly is likely to be sustained over the remainder of the period, with short-term fluctuations around an elevated mean of approximately +2°C likely persisting throughout week 3 and possibly elevating to a substantial anomaly of +4°C by week 4. Italy is due to experience similar magnitudes of temperature anomaly, but our outlook suggests that the trend to warmer temperatures will be more gradual here (figure 12). 

Please note that this free service is based on medium-long range forecasts analyzed over large, non-homogenous regions. For more information on the methodology applied and its limitations, as well as guidance for creating a more detailed and accurate bespoke product using the Meteomatics API, please see our Tech Blog.