Welcome to Meteomatics Weather Update for the Christmas and New Year Period

Headline: A rather extreme next 2 weeks; persistent low/very low wind and often combined with low solar, with a very poor renewable outlook. Much of Europe very/extremely dry including Alps and locally less than 10-20% of normal with low ROR hydro and Rhine/Danube lowering with depth restrictions emerging. Some parts totally dry with risk of drought.

Meteomatics fortnightly weather bulletins aim to keep our customers informed of the unfolding weather situation across Europe. Helping our customers stay informed of the latest weather developments that could influence trading over Christmas and into the New Year Period.

Meteomatics Energy Market Weather Update analyzes temperature and wind forecasts, and provides a comparison against the 15-year climatology for each of the following regions:

The United Kingdom / Italy / Netherlands / Germany & Northern France.

Summary – (14/12/21 – 08/01/22)

After experiencing cold temperatures in early December, western Europe’s weather is now influenced by milder air masses. Over the next few days, milder air masses will bring an increase in temperatures and reduce wind speeds as low-pressure systems are blocked. The influence of the jet stream will weaken for the UK, the Netherlands, and northern Germany. These are typical characteristics of a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) pattern.

The situation 14th December 00 UTC: warm air masses spread across Europe.

Situation on 04/12/21 00 UTC

Chart 1. Situation on 04/12/21 00 UTC

  1. Temperature

Taking a closer look at each of the key regions in more detail to reveal the temperature trends:

United Kingdom (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

The cold period is ended by the approaching warm front. During week 50 of 2021 temperatures will climb to above normal values with an anomaly above 5°C. However, on 20/12: temperatures are expected to fall below the mean with possible deviations of up to -7°C and remain cold into week 1 of January 2022 with possible deviations of -8°C, with temperatures recovering 9/01: deviation of -2°C.

Chart 2. United Kingdom 2m Temperature/14/12/21-08/01/22.png

Chart 2. United Kingdom 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22.

Netherlands (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

The cold period is also ended by the approaching warm front. During week 50 of 2021 temperature deviations of up to +7 °C. However, temperatures are expected to deviate below the mean on Christmas Day with possible deviations of -4 °C. The forecast shows a recovery on 28/12 before temperatures dropping significantly below 15 year-mean, with possible deviations of around -12°C on 4/01 before recovering slightly during week 1 of 2022, but remaining below the 15 year-mean.

Chart 3. Netherlands 2m Temperature/14/12/21-08/01/22

Chart 3. Netherlands 2m Temperature/14/12/21-08/01/22

Northern France (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

Northern France experienced up to 9 °C during week 50 of 2021 and temperatures will remain above the 15 year-mean until 16/12, when temperatures will fall: with forecasted deviations of -5°C on 22/12. Temperatures will fluctuate between 22/12 and 28/12 near the climatological mean, before falling again with temperature deviations of up to -11°C during week 1 of 2022.

Chart 4. Northern France. 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22.png

Chart 4. Northern France. 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22

Germany (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

Temperatures remain above the 15 year-mean until 23/12 when temperatures are expected to start a downward trend, accelerating on 29/12 with temperature deviations of up to -13°C during week 1 of 2022.

Chart 5. Germany 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22.png

Chart 5. Germany 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22

Italy (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

The arrival of milder temperatures in Italy is delayed by a few days in comparison to other regions (temperatures going above the mean on 18/12), as the high-pressure system keeps transporting colder air masses from Eastern Europe towards Italy. Temperatures in Italy are expected to fall below the mean again on 21/12: with forecasted deviations reaching -5°C on 25/12.

Temperature fluctuations are expected between 27/12 and New Year’s, before falling sharply during week 1 of 2022, reaching deviations of -10°C.

Chart 6. Italy 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22.png

Chart 6. Italy 2m Temperature 14/12/21-08/01/22.

  1. Wind Speed

During week 50 of 2021, a high-pressure system over western Europe is expected to keep intensifying and create very calm or even below-average wind conditions: across UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy. After the 15/12, the high-pressure system will extend to the north while pushing the jet stream further north. Low-pressure systems are expected to become blocked and unable to move inland, towards the continent. This blocked pattern evokes the presence of an SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event, but the polar vortex is quite strong at the moment without any indication for such an event taking place.

Chart 7. Situation on 16/12/21 00 UTC.png

Chart 7. Situation on 16/12/21 00 UTC

Taking a closer look at each of the key regions in more detail to reveal the temperature trends:

Germany (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

In Germany, high wind speeds (up to +7m/s above climatology) are forecasted on 15/12 and 16/12. However, most of the forecast period is expected to see wind speeds below climatology, falling below 4m/s on 23/12 until 28/12. During week 1 of 2022 wind speeds are expected to fall significantly reaching -6m/s below climatology, coinciding with periods of cold weather and potentially increasing demand: putting pressure on the energy grid.

Chart 8. 90m Wind Speed Germany 14/12/21 - 08/01/22

Chart 8. 90m Wind Speed Germany 14/12/21 - 08/01/22

Italy (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

Wind speeds in Italy are very different in comparison to other European regions: Week 51 of 2021 is expected to experience a below-average signal for low wind speeds in the main. The forecast expects wind speeds to fall again on 24th and 25th December with a deviation of -1.5m/s, before fluctuating during week 52 of 2021 with periods above and below the climatology, until week 1 of 2022 with wind speeds falling with deviation nearly reaching -2m/s, before recovering on 9/01.

Chart 9. 90m Wind Speed Italy 14/12/21 - 08/01/22.png

Chart 9. 90m Wind Speed Italy 14/12/21 - 08/01/22.png

Northern France (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

Northern France is forecasted to experience calmer conditions and wind speeds below climatology, with possible deviations reaching -5.5m/s at end of week 50. The forecast shows a significant change on 4/01, with wind speeds peaking above climatology +2m/s, before falling below climatology once again on 5/01.

Chart 10. 90m Wind Speed Northern France 14/12/21 - 08/01/22

Chart 10. 90m Wind Speed Northern France 14/12/21 - 08/01/22

Netherlands (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

Week 50 of 2022 is expected to start with high wind speeds (up to 12m/s) before declining for most of the forecast period. Deviations of nearly -8m/s below climatology are expected on 27/12 and remaining below climatology during week 1 and 2 of 2022. The low wind speeds coincide with periods of cold weather and potentially increasing energy demand: putting pressure on the energy grid.

Chart 11. 90m Wind Speed Netherlands 14/12/21 - 08/01/22.png

Chart 11. 90m Wind Speed Netherlands 14/12/21 - 08/01/22.png

United Kingdom (14/12/21 – 08-01-22)

During week 50 of 2021, high wind speeds are forecasted on 14/12 and 15/12 (up to 13m/s), and 17/12 (up to 8m/s). However, the remainder of the forecast period is expected to see wind speeds below climatology (-6m/s on 22/12) and during week 1 of 2022. The low wind speeds coincide with periods of cold weather and potentially increasing energy demand: putting pressure on the energy grid.

Chart 12. 90m Wind Speed United Kingdom 14/12/21 - 08/01/22.png

Chart 12. 90m Wind Speed United Kingdom 14/12/21 - 08/01/22

The data (in the charts shown) can be obtained from Meteomatics API, please refer to our latest tech blog article for further details on how to create your own report for any lat / long, area of interest (polygon request).

We hope you found Meteomatics' energy market weather update informative. Please feel free to submit any feedback to [email protected], so that we can continue improving this service and offer valuable weather insights for European weather markets.

If you are not yet a customer but would like to gain further information on Meteomatics API, and the forecast data it makes available. Please contact our expert energy meteorologist Matthias Piot ([email protected]), who will be happy to provide any assistance you may need.