Meteomatics’ Energy Market Weather Update analyzes temperature and wind forecasts, and provides a comparison against the 15-year climatology for each of the following regions: The United Kingdom / Italy / Netherlands / Germany & Northern France. Synoptic features of interest are shown for week 1.

Spring has (almost) sprung, and centers such as ECMWF and the UK Met Office have produced their seasonal forecasts, which predict a mild season for Europe due to a combination of a strong stratospheric polar vortex; a decaying La Niña; and a positive phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

We certainly see this borne out in the next two weeks, during which time blocking high-pressures will dominate European weather.

A cyclone currently located over Iceland brings moderate winds to the UK today,

Figure 1: A cyclone currently located over Iceland brings moderate winds to the UK today, but will soon move north and be replaced by a succession of high pressures

Week 1

A cyclone currently located over Iceland will bring mildly windy conditions to the UK in over the next day. Figure 1 shows that this may be more significant in some of the UK’s offshore wind regions, such as the coast of north-east Scotland. As this system moves away in the next two days, it will be replaced by a series of high pressures (such as that shown in figure 2), likely bringing clear skies and a drop in temperature and wind speed in the UK (figures 3 and 8). These temperatures will be quite normal for the time of year, but a moderate negative wind anomaly can be expected to persist here throughout week 1.

As the first of the high-pressure systems moves over Great Britain, temperatures will drop in Northern France (figure 9) and the Netherlands (figure 10), with below average temperatures then persisting into week 2. France will also receive a boost to wind coming in from the Atlantic (figure 4). Germany, which is already experiencing a mild cold spell (figure 11), will continue to do so. 

In figure 12 we see that Italy will observe a general cold wave over the next month with very little by way of general warming- or cooling trend. 

high pressure system anticipated to be sitting over Great Britain on Saturday

Figure 2: a high pressure system anticipated to be sitting over Great Britain on Saturday (05/03/2022) will deflect incoming Atlantic weather systems, leading to clear skies and cold weather over the UK

Week 2

Early in week 2, the high situated over the British Isles (figure 2) is due to move north-east, leaving Great Britain exposed to some Atlantic winds again. Although these wind speeds are unlikely to exceed seasonal averages for the UK (figure 3), their penetration into Germany is likely to see a small boost to wind speed there (figure 6). A barrage of Atlantic low-pressures is expected to lead to a significant wind boost for Germany and the Netherlands towards the end of the week (figures 5 & 6).

The colder weather anticipated over the UK, Northern France  and the Netherlands is expected to return gradually to milder conditions over the course of the week (figures 8-10). In Germany and Italy, however, existing cold anomalies are likely to persist throughout the week. 

Weeks 3 & 4

Analysis of the synoptic situation is more challenging at this lead time. The current prognosis is for a series of Atlantic lows to generate some moderate positive wind anomalies in the UK, Northern France, the Netherlands and Germany towards the start of week 3. These signatures may be more persistent in the UK and France (figures 3 & 4), but are expected to die away in the Netherlands and Germany (figures 5 & 6). Temperatures can be expected to remain seasonally cold, with a major cold snap anticipated for Italy in week 3 (figure 12). This cold wave may also be seen as a moderate anomaly in Germany (figure 10) and a mild one in the Netherlands and Northern France (figures 9 & 10). A return to seasonally normal temperatures is expected for most regions by mid week 4. 

Please note that this free service is based on medium-long range forecasts analyzed over large, non-homogenous regions. For more information on the methodology applied and its limitations, as well as guidance for creating a more detailed and accurate bespoke product using the Meteomatics API, please see our Tech Blog.

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