Even in an (increasingly unlikely) +1.5°C world, weather conditions can be expected to be quite different from today. Focusing on mitigation and transition risk is no longer enough.
Meteomatics AG: In this report, Meteomatics has analyzed climate projection data and other trusted scientific sources to highlight the need for industries and organizations, to urgently prepare and plan their response to the impacts of changing climate: with the world on course to experience an increase in temperatures of at least an increase of 1.5c.
On 20th April, The World Meteorological Organization published its report on the State of the Climate 2020 describing the changing climate by using seven climate change indicators: Temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, ice and glacier melt, extreme weather, impacts on food security and hunger and displacement.
Meteomatics sees an urgent and critical need to help organizations prepare and plan for a changing climate. Therefore, we now make CMIP6 climate projection data created by the Meteorological Institute of Japan (MRI) available and offer our expertise in weather and climate science to help businesses, industries, and public entities understand the potential impacts of Climate Change.
- 2020 was one of the warmest years on record globally. Severity of effects varies significantly by region.
- Annual Greenhouse Gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations continue to rise despite mitigation and COVID "pause". Trend reversal will require time.
- SSP scenarios with low global temperature rise become increasingly unlikely.
- Even “benign” SSP scenarios assuming good Greenhouse Gas emission mitigation success, could evidence much more severe effects than in recent years.
All communities and businesses can therefore be expected to feel the effects of Climate Change. Focus on mitigation efforts and transition risks is no longer enough. Gaining an understanding of the direct effects of Climate Change is urgent. Understanding of potential impacts will enable planning the adaptation and transformation required.
Global Temperature Increase is undeniable
It's evident from the data that the global temperature in the recent past has started to increase significantly. The severity of effects varies by region but is noticeable globally. The recent global pattern also fits well with the SSP scenarios for potential future development.
Despite Mitigation Efforts Greenhouse Gas Emissions Continue to Rise.
The world has begun to explore and adopt many measures of reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions, with many leaders setting ambitious targets, promoting the phrase ‘building back green’ from the pandemic and countries seeking more economic sustainability in all sectors. The transformation of the global economy, value chains and technology stock has begun. In the energy sector, more progress has been made than in other sectors such as housing, transport or industrial production. Much more innovation, efficiency focus and roll-out of fossil-free technologies to a global scale will be required. This will take time.
Unsurprisingly, the data shows that the CO2 emission trend continues, with the pandemic only bringing a pause and not a fundamental change in trend or even a reversal. In fact, atmospheric CO2 concentrations remain at record highs, increasing the likelihood for development in line with the more severe SSP scenarios and therefore heralding serious impacts on societies and the planet.
The pandemic has brought the realization which fundamental change is required to overcome the global emission trajectory. It has highlighted the possible benefits of climate mitigation strategies in carbon-intense sectors such as aviation. It has also brought the realization that emissions could quickly return to previous levels, once travel restrictions are lifted. Instead, a joint effort similar to the fight against the pandemic is required across all sectors. The implementation of long-term mitigation measures is going to take time. Hence organizations and industries now need to start understanding and preparing for the inevitable impacts of Climate Change including SSP scenarios with Greenhouse Gas emission trajectories which are consistent with the global transformation pace. SSP1-2.6 which would require an almost immediate reversal of the Greenhouse Gas concentration in the atmosphere is becoming increasingly unlikely.
What we have seen is just the beginning
The SSP scenarios all highlight an increase in temperature of varying degrees.
The Paris agreement aspires to a +1.5°C global temperature change to pre-industrial levels. The recent past illustrated on the left-hand side evidenced a significantly lower global temperature rise than indicated by all of the SSP scenarios. The charts above therefore illustrate that even relatively benign SSP scenarios imply materially changed climatic conditions.
Accordingly, communities and businesses will feel the effects of Climate Change. In particular, individuals involved in decisions for supply critical infrastructure investments, long-term policies, water supply or agriculture should factor the potential effects of Climate Change into their analysis today. Ironically, renewables power generation assets which are one of the most important elements of mitigating Climate Change may suffer drastic direct effects of Climate Change as production volumes are directly determined by weather patterns.
Please get in touch if you would like to discuss running a climate impact analysis for your business or area of interest: contact Gerald Koch ([email protected])