Welcome to Meteomatics first Weather Update for 2022 (January & February)

Headline: Temperatures are expected to decrease significantly around the 22nd of January in all regions included in the report. The forecast for the UK and Germany is more uncertain than other regions in mid-January. Wind speeds are expected to alternate above and below the climatology for most regions across the forecast period. The outlook for global radiation production from week 04 and beyond, is favorable for most regions when high pressure is expected to provide clear skies. 

Meteomatics fortnightly weather bulletins aim to keep our customers informed of the unfolding weather situation across Europe. Helping our customers stay informed of the latest weather developments that could influence trading over January and early February.

Meteomatics Energy Market Weather Update analyzes temperature, wind, and global radiation forecasts, and provides a comparison against the 15-year climatology for each of the following regions:

The United Kingdom / Italy / Netherlands / Germany & Northern France.

Summary – (14/01/22 – 21/01/22) 

The situation on 14th January 00 UTC: the current high-pressure system over Europe weakens and the jet stream is reaching further south reaching Germany, bringing more dynamic patterns.

Chart 1: Situation on 14/01/22 00 UTC

Chart 1: Situation on 14/01/22 00 UTC

The situation on 21st January: another high-pressure area builds to the west of the UK. Central Europe is influenced by northerly flows with polar air masses – the start of the colder weather period.

Chart 2: 21/01/22 00 UTC

Chart 2: 21/01/22 00 UTC

  1. Temperature:

Currently, temperatures are slightly below average in Germany, Italy, and northern France. The UK and the Netherlands are influenced by milder oceanic air masses. The influence of the large high-pressure area over Europe continues. The high-pressure area starts to weaken around the 15th, whereas a low-pressure system over Russia starts to gain more and more control over Europe’s weather.

In the meantime, another high-pressure area is expected to develop to the west of the UK. The combination of both systems results in a northerly flow transporting cold air masses towards Central Europe. Temperatures in Europe are expected to decrease significantly around the 22nd of January in all regions included in this update. Deviations of up to -10 °C from the climatological mean are possible. By the end of January, temperatures are expected to rise above average again in Germany and the UK. The Netherlands, Italy, and Northern France are expected to experience temperatures below average into February as well.

Taking a closer look at each of the key regions in more detail to reveal the temperature trends:

Germany (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

Towards the end of week 03 of 2022 temperatures are expected to fall below normal values, with possible temperature deviations of up to -10°C. Temperatures are expected to remain cold until the end of week 05.

Chart 3: Germany 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 3: Germany 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Forecast uncertainty - Germany:

The uncertainty of the temperature forecast for Germany increases significantly after 17/01. The majority of the members indicate colder temperatures for Berlin, while the ensemble mean (highlighted in black) stays quite constant after the 21st. The spread lies between +6 and -7 °C after the 21st. The situation around and after the 24th of January is quite special for Germany as it is influenced by the eastern edge of a high-pressure system - models show high volatility of the high-pressure system, which means that Germany is either affected by calm high-pressure conditions or by cold northerly flows.

Chart 4: Berlin Ensemble Forecast 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 27/01/22

Chart 4: Berlin Ensemble Forecast 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 27/01/22

Northern France (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

Around the start of week 04 of 2022, temperatures are expected to fall below normal values, with possible temperature deviations of up to -8°C. Temperatures are expected to remain cold until the end of week 05.

Chart 5: Northern France 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 5: Northern France 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Netherlands (13/01/22 – 09/02/22)

Around the end of week 03 of 2022, temperatures are expected to fall below normal values, with possible temperature deviations of up to -8°C. Temperatures are expected to recover slightly during the end of the week to close to the climatological mean.

Chart 6: Netherlands 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 6: Netherlands 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Italy (13/01/22 – 09/02/22)

Around the end of week 03 of 2022, temperatures are also expected to fall below normal values in Italy, with possible temperature deviations more than -8°C. Temperatures are expected to remain cold and below the climatological mean until the end of week 06.

Chart 7: Italy 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 7: Italy 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

United Kingdom (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

During week 03 of 2022, temperatures are also expected to fall below normal values in the UK, with possible temperature deviations of -6°C. Temperatures are expected to remain cold until the start of week 05, when temperatures will recover and are expected to remain above the climatological mean for the remainder of the forecast period.

Chart 8: UK 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 8: UK 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Forecast uncertainty - UK:

Also, for London, the uncertainty of the temperature forecast increases significantly in mid-January. The spread between the minimum and maximum ensemble values is similar to Berlin. Temperatures within the range of +10 and -4 °C can be expected, which means that the forecast is very uncertain. The ensemble mean shows a cooler period around the 21st, which is in compliance with the expected negative temperature anomaly.

Chart 9: London Ensemble Forecast 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 27/01/22

Chart 9: London Ensemble Forecast 2m Temperature 13/01/22 – 27/01/22

  1. Wind speed:

Due to the current influence of high pressure in most parts of Europe, wind speeds are below the climatological mean with deviations of around 4 m/s. The exception is Italy, which experiences higher wind speeds (up to 3 m/s above average) than usual due to the influence of a low-pressure system over the Mediterranean. The high pressure will take over control in Italy by the end of this week as well. Wind speeds in Italy will remain below average until the 24th. Germany and the Netherlands will first experience an alternating pattern of wind speeds at average and above average (positive deviations of up to 6 m/s), whereas wind conditions in Germany will become quite calm after the arrival of the cold period - this is due to the changing shape of the high-pressure area, shifting its influence. The UK and northern France experience average wind speeds or wind speeds below average for the whole of January.

Chart 10: The situation 28th January 00 UTC

Chart 10: The situation 28th January 00 UTC

Taking a closer look at each of the key regions in more detail to reveal the temperature trends:

Germany (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

In Germany, high wind speeds (more than +6m/s above climatology) are forecasted during week 03 of 2022. However, wind speeds are expected to fall below climatology during week 04 (-2m/s below climatology), coinciding with periods of cold weather and potentially increasing demand.

Chart 11: 90m Wind Speed Germany 13/01/22 – 11/02/22Chart 11: 90m Wind Speed Germany 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 11: 90m Wind Speed Germany 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

 

Northern France (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

In Northern France, low wind speeds (close to -5m/s below climatology) are forecasted until the 21st of January, when wind speeds are expected to recover to the climatological mean. Before declining to nearly -4m/s below climatology on the 31st January, and recovering once again on the 6th February with winds speeds expected to reach more than 10 m/s on the 8th February.

Chart 12: 90m Wind Speed Northern France 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 12: 90m Wind Speed Northern France 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

 

Netherlands (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

The Netherlands will experience alternating patterns of wind speeds, with speeds expected to reach 12 m/s on 17th January, before dropping to -2.5 m/s and below climatology until 29th of January. The remainder of the forecast period is likely to see wind speeds vary between above and below climatology on a daily basis.

Chart 13: 90m Wind Speed Netherlands 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 13: 90m Wind Speed Netherlands 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

 

Italy (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

Wind speeds in Italy are very different in comparison to other European regions: remaining below the climatological mean until the 23rd of January, when they are expected to reach +4m/s above the climatological mean. Wind speeds are expected to fall again on the 29th of January, with wind speeds more than -2 m/s below the climatological mean, which is expected to be followed by wind speeds above climatology on 2nd February (up to 2 m/s), before dropping below the climatology for the remainder of the forecast period.

Chart 14: 90m Wind Speed Italy 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 14: 90m Wind Speed Italy 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

 

United Kingdom (13/01/22 – 11/02/22)

Wind speeds in the United Kingdom are expected to be below the climatological mean (below -5m/s) until week 03 of 2022, when wind speeds are forecasted to be close to the climatological mean until week 05 when the UK could experience high speeds (up to +10 m/s above the climatological mean).

Chart 15: 90m Wind Speed United Kingdom 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 15: 90m Wind Speed United Kingdom 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

 

3. Global radiation / PV production

Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK are currently experiencing very low levels of solar radiation for the time of year: values are at average or below the climatological mean (up to -50 W/m2). Italy shows values well above average with maxima of up to +100 W/m2.

When the influence of high pressure increases around week 04 and the expected cold spell arrives, clear skies will favor higher global radiation production for all regions. Maximum deviations from climatological means of up to +200 W/m2 are possible. The only exception is the UK with roughly +100 W/m2. Radiation levels are expected to stay above average until the end of the month.

Chart 16: Global radiation w/m 2 Germany 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 16: Global radiation W/m 2 Germany 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 17: Global radiation w/m 2 Italy 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 17: Global radiation W/m 2 Italy 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 18: Global radiation w/m 2 Netherlands France 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 18: Global radiation w/m 2 Netherlands France 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 19: Global radiation w/m 2 Northern France 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 19: Global radiation W/m 2 Northern France 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 20: Global radiation w/m 2 United Kingdom 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

Chart 20: Global radiation W/m 2 United Kingdom 13/01/22 – 11/02/22

The data (in the charts shown) can be obtained from Meteomatics API, please refer to our latest tech blog article for further details on how to create your own report for any lat / long, area of interest (polygon request).

We hope you found Meteomatics' energy market weather update informative. Please feel free to submit any feedback to [email protected], so that we can continue improving this service and offer valuable weather insights for European weather markets.

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