Global climate data is provided by the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model Version 2.0 (MRI-ESM2.0), which is part of the globally-recognised Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
The climate data is available from 2015 until 2100. In order to address the socioeconomic developments in future climate predictions, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were introduced (O'Neill et al., 2014). Five major climate scenarios are differentiated.
The biggest advantage of using the SSPs is the incorporation of both, uncertainties in climate change outcomes and socioeconomic pathways regarding adaptation and mitigation strategies. Socioeconomic and environmental challenges can be displayed on two axes. The x-axis represents challenges pertaining to adaptation and the y-axis depicts challenges to mitigation.
The term ”socioeconomic” encompasses demographic, political, social, cultural, institutional, life-style, economic, and technological aspects, as well as human-induced services such as water quality, biodiversity, and ecosystem form and function (O'Neill et al., 2014).
The five Scenarios
In order to query climate data for a certain scenario from the API, the parameter source has to be set to the desired scenario.
The data sets include the parameters temperature, precipitation, wind, radiation and other parameters that are related to or derived from those. The native grid resolution is 1°, but the data is downscaled to a resolution of 90 m.
SSP1: Sustainability (taking the green road)
SSP1 (former RCP2.6)
Shift towards a more sustainable path
Development respects environmental boundaries
Broader emphasis on human well-being
Inequality is reduced
Consumption is oriented towards lower resource and energy intensity
Radiative forcing reaches 2.6 W/m2 by the end of the century
SSP2: Middle of the road
SSP2 (former RCP4.5)
Social, economic, and technological trends do not shift significantly from historical patterns
Development and income growth proceeds unevenly (dependent on country)
Slow progress in achieving sustainable development goals
Environmental systems experience degradation
Overall the intensity of resource and energy use declines
Moderate population growth
Income inequality persists or improves only slowly
Radiative forcing reaches 4.5 W/m2 by the end of the century
SSP3: Regional rivalry (a rocky road)
SSP3 (former RCP7.0)
Insecurities and concerns about competitiveness
Regional conflicts force countries on domestic issues
Countries focus on achieving energy and food security goals
Investments in education and technological development decline
Economic development is slow, consumption is material-intensive, and inequalities persist or worsen over time
Population growth is low in industrialized and high in developing countries
Radiative forcing reaches 7.0 W/m2 by the end of the century
SSP4: Inequality (a road divided)
SSP4 (former RCP6.0)
Increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power
Unequal investments in human capital
Increasing gap within societies followed by social cohesion degradation
Technology development is high in the high-tech economy
Energy sector diversifies (low-carbon energy sources)
Radiative forcing reaches 6.0 W/m2 by the end of the century
SSP5: Fossil-fueled development (taking the highway)
SSP5 (former RCP8.5)
Increasing faith in competitive markets, innovation and participatory societies
Strong investments in health, education, and institutions to enhance human and social capital
Developments are coupled with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources
Rapid growth of the global economy and population
Radiative forcing reaches 8.5 W/m2 by the end of the century
Global temperature (2 m) for July 1st, 2080 in MetX:
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