Ensemble Member Selection | Cluster Selection

Ensemble Member Selection

For ensemble models we provide each individual member, as well as mean, median, quantiles, and other basic statistical parameters. They can be queried in all combinations with the optional parameter 'ens_select'. Possible values are:

member:5Single Member 5
member:1-50All members between 1 and 50 (use member:1-100 for all 100 ensemble members of ECMWF-VAREPS)
member:0Control run (default if nothing else specified)
meanArithmetic mean
spreadEnsemble spread:
The standard deviation with respect to the ensemble mean. It shows the diversity of all possible outcomes and thus represents the uncertainty of the forecast. A small spread theoretically indicates high forecast accuracy while a large spread theoretically indicates low forecast accuracy.
quantile0.2The 0.2 quantile (any value between 0 and 1 is possible)

Example: This is the ECMWF ensemble run, for air temperature 2 meters above ground, for 7 days in one hour steps. 15 ensembles are shown.


Example:This example shows the control run in combination with the 10 and 90 percentiles and the median

Ensemble example statistics

Cluster Selection

For the ensemble cluster products a specific cluster can be queried. The available clusters can be queried using the parameter number_of_clusters:x (refer to Cluster Parameters).
Available cluster_select parameters:

cluster:4Single cluster 4
cluster:1-6All clusters between 1 and 6